Censor.NET chief editor Yurii Butusov wrote on Facebook, analyzing military-strategic situation.
According to him, Ukraine has to initiate the offensive and Poroshenko should stop being scared of Putin.
"It is clear that the threat of a large-scale military invasion cannot be considered as a reality any more. Putin needs to conduct mobilization measures for a large-scale invasion. The truth is that the staff of the permanent readiness detachments of the armed forces of Russia does not exceed 60-70 thousand of servicemen, as the war in the Donbas proved. Heavy strikes but not an overrun can be performed with such forces. A large army group should be deployed to control the land bridge to Crimea. Putin doesn't have such army in the Donbas. I wrote that the Russian Federation large-scale offensive in the southern regions should not be expected because there is no evidence of strike groups' concentration. A partial mobilization measures in the Russian Federation would be a key stage in preparing the occupation of Ukraine from the military point of view. It is not happening. And I can predict with the 99% certainty that such mobilization will not follow. The western world presented united front against Putin in Brisbane for the first time, and for the first time it showed that the Russian aggressor is persona non grata in the civilized world. This means that Putin will receive the new package of sanctions much faster now, in case of further escalation of the war in Ukraine. And Russia is already paralyzed by the fall in oil prices on world markets. Modern war is a costly affair," the journalist said.
"Anti-Putin front is created - and this is the new reality of the world politics. How can it affect the situation at the front? It means the most favorable political background for Ukraine to act. World leaders have consolidated their position, and clearly defined Putin's responsibility for warmongering in Ukraine, and for all he did. No one will interfere in Ukraine's restoration of the order, provided that the establishment of the one is carried out with a scalpel, not a sledgehammer. The Ukrainian troops should improve their positions in all flash points of the ATO area," Butusov said.
According to him, a favorable background for the Ukrainian command to start planning the operation to liberate the Donbas is now created, and the Ukrainian army must apply the new combat concept.
"It is necessary to create rapid mobility strike forces detachments from the operating units and begin systematic work to eliminate centers of resistance and enemy detachments. The defense must be active. The enemy should not have time to rest. We must offer the enemy war on the roads - organization of sabotage activities needs to be started. The Supreme Commander should have realized that it is possible to play the role of a peacemaker in the talks with Putin only if we start beating him. All efforts to make an agreement have not leaded to prisoners' release and dialogue. We need to carry out a war of sabotage groups, howitzer artillery and mortars, large armored detachments and protected convoys. Hard admission to the Donbas for people and vehicles is required. It is necessary to protect the hostilities zone against the enemy agents' penetration. We require urgent reorganization of the army and the ATO troops as a whole. And for this purpose it was necessary to change chief of Staff Victor Muzhenko to an adequate warlord much earlier," the military expert emphasized.
"We can force the Russian Federation out from the Donbas, but to do this we must start conducting a full-scale war - without raising flags, without hype and spin. It should be committed without any all-out attacks and maneuvers but by surgical strikes - locally and fatally. The goal of the war should be the infliction of maximum losses to the occupying forces. The only way to protect Ukraine is to release it. I think the president of Ukraine should immediately bring up the situation after Brisbane and the establishment of a realistic strategy for discussion at the National Security and Defense Council," Butusov sums up.